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Can Solana price recover to $160 after the recent liquidity reset?
Solana (SOL) demonstrates resilience as it attempts to reclaim the $140 mark. The asset currently trades at $137.26, reflecting a 3.4% gain over the last 24 hours. While the monthly view shows an 18% drawdown, the weekly range between $128 and $145 signals a stabilization phase. Investors should note the significant uptick in participation: trading volume surged 53% to $6.41 billion recently. This volume expansion during a consolidation period often validates the strength of the support level.
Derivatives Data Signals Accumulation
The derivatives market indicates sophisticated capital is positioning for a move.
- Derivatives Volume: Increased by 23% to $18 billion.
- Futures Open Interest: Rose by 2.3% to $7.25 billion.
When Open Interest (the total number of outstanding contracts) rises while the spot price remains relatively flat, it creates a specific divergence. This pattern suggests traders are opening new positions rather than closing old ones. In market structure analysis, this behavior represents “quiet accumulation.” The market absorbs selling pressure without dropping further, often building the energy required for a volatility expansion.
Understanding the Liquidity Reset
Data from Glassnode highlights a critical “liquidity reset.” The 30-day Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio for SOL has remained below 1.0 since mid-November.
- What this means: Investors are realizing more losses than profits on chain.
- Why it matters: This capitulation flushes out speculative, “weak” money.
Historically, markets bottom out when short-term holders surrender their positions. Once this selling exhaustion occurs, the order book thins out on the sell side. Consequently, it requires less buying volume to push prices higher. As noted by analysts, these resets frequently precede multi-week rallies because the market is no longer weighed down by panic sellers.
Catalyst Watch: Breakpoint 2025
The upcoming Breakpoint 2025 Conference (Dec. 11–13) serves as a fundamental catalyst. Major ecosystem events typically drive social sentiment and speculative demand. If the liquidity reset completes prior to the conference, the event could act as a launchpad, driving prices upward as attention returns to the ecosystem.
Technical Outlook
Technical indicators support a cautiously bullish thesis.
- Bollinger Bands: SOL holds above the lower band ($135) and targets the middle band ($145).
- Momentum: The MACD has flipped positive, signaling a shift in trend.
- RSI: The Relative Strength Index sits at a neutral 48. This leaves ample room for upside before the asset becomes “overbought.”
Strategic Summary
Solana sits at a pivotal decision point. The $145 level is the key resistance; a confirmed close above this price opens the path to $160. Conversely, failure to break this ceiling could test the $135 support floor. However, with rising volume, a completed liquidity flush, and a major conference approaching, the probability tilts toward a recovery.