Why is XRP stuck below $2 despite rising whale accumulation?

Is XRP a buy at $1.85 or will low network activity drop prices further?

Market Analysis: XRP Consolidation and Network Divergence

Investors monitoring XRP must navigate a challenging technical landscape. The asset remains suppressed below the psychological $2.00 barrier, extending a multi-week correction. Despite fleeting bullish attempts, selling pressure consistently caps upward momentum. Market participants now face a binary outcome: price stabilization or a liquidity-driven capitulation.

Accumulation Patterns Among Mid-Term Holders

On-chain data highlights a distinct behavioral shift within the investor base. HODL Waves metrics indicate that investors holding XRP for one to two years have increased their aggregate position by approximately 3% since early December. This cohort now controls roughly 11% of the circulating supply.

This accumulation suggests mid-term speculators are maturing into high-conviction investors. Rather than liquidating during price weakness, these holders are absorbing supply. While many in this group actively hold unrealized losses, their refusal to sell establishes a soft floor for the asset price. However, accumulation alone rarely triggers parabolic runs; it simply mitigates downside volatility.

The Bearish Signal: NVT Ratio and Utility Gaps

While holder sentiment appears resilient, network fundamentals present a stark warning. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio recently hit a three-month peak. This metric compares market capitalization against the value of on-chain transaction volume.

A rising NVT ratio signals that the asset’s price is outpacing its utility. Essentially, XRP carries a premium valuation unsupported by actual ledger usage. Transaction volume on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) remains stagnant relative to price action. For sustainable capital appreciation, blockchain networks require consistent utility. Current data suggests XRP runs on speculative fumes rather than the fuel of organic network adoption. Without a surge in on-chain activity, rallies remain vulnerable to rapid reversals.

Technical Outlook: Critical Support and Resistance Zones

XRP currently trades near $1.86, trapped in a consolidation range defined by low volume. The technical structure confirms a bearish bias as long as price action stays below previous support-turned-resistance levels.

Immediate Support ($1.85)

This level serves as the primary defense line. A high-volume close below $1.85 invalidates the consolidation thesis and opens the door to lower valuation targets.

Key Resistance ($1.94 – $2.02)

Bulls must reclaim $1.94 to neutralize the immediate downtrend. A decisive breakout above $2.02 is necessary to target the $2.20 region.

Advisor Takeaway

The market currently exhibits a divergence between investor patience (bullish) and network utility (bearish). Exercise caution. While the $1.85 floor offers an attractive entry for risk-tolerant traders, the lack of transactional volume suggests upside potential is currently capped. Wait for a confirmed breakout above $1.94 or a spike in on-chain volume before committing significant capital.