Can Dogecoin Defy the Odds for a Remarkable Year-End Comeback?
Dogecoin is facing a challenging end to 2025. The coin’s price is struggling to stay above the key $0.17 mark, a level that has historically been a launchpad for strong year-end performances. In past years, the final quarter has been very good for Dogecoin, with significant gains in 2022, 2023, and 2024. This year, things look different, and a repeat of that success is not certain.
Why Holders are Concerned
Confidence among Dogecoin holders appears to be shaky. The actions of both small and large investors help paint a clearer picture of this uncertainty.
- Fewer people are holding onto their coins for both short-term (1–3 months) and long-term (1–2 years) periods.
- Large investors, often called “whales,” are showing mixed behaviors. Some wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million coins have sold off about 4.3 billion DOGE since early October, worth around $730 million. Other reports show whales have sold roughly 1 billion coins in a single week in November.
- At the same time, some mid-sized whales have been buying, and some analysts see whale accumulation as a bullish sign. This division among major players makes it difficult for any price rally to gain and hold momentum.
Trading Activity Signals Caution
Recent trading trends suggest that the market is less active than in previous fourth-quarter rallies. The On-Balance Volume (OBV), which measures buying and selling pressure, has fallen, indicating that recent small price increases are not backed by strong buying interest. This weak foundation makes any rally fragile and likely to be short-lived.
In the derivatives market, where traders bet on future price movements, many more positions are “short” (betting the price will fall) than “long” (betting it will rise). On the Gate.io exchange, short positions of $776.75 million significantly outweigh long positions of $151.77 million. This points to widespread cautious sentiment among traders.
Price Levels to Watch
Dogecoin’s price has been moving within an upward-trending channel since April 2025, and it is now testing the lower edge of that channel. The $0.17 level is a critical support line.
Bearish Case
If the price breaks below $0.17, it could trigger a further decline toward $0.15. Such a drop would mark a significant structural break in its long-term trend. Heavy selling by whales has already pushed the price below $0.18 at times, adding to the downward pressure.
Bullish Case
There are some technical signs, like hidden bullish divergences, that suggest a rebound is possible. If the price can hold above $0.17 and move back toward $0.22, it could limit the year’s losses. Some analysts remain optimistic, with predictions for a Q4 breakout toward the $0.40–$0.50 range, while others see a path to even higher valuations if market conditions improve. Potential news, such as the approval of a spot Dogecoin ETF, could also serve as a positive catalyst.
What to Expect
As 2025 concludes, Dogecoin’s outlook is fragile. Significant selling from large holders, low trading volume, and cautious betting in the derivatives market all point to an uncertain fourth quarter. However, the possibility of a technical rebound and positive market news means a late recovery is not out of the question. While matching the explosive gains of previous years seems unlikely, holding the crucial $0.17 support level could allow Dogecoin to end the year with some stability.